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Practical Forecasting Essentials (online)

Practical product features and portfolio probabilistic forecasting.

Description

This online workshop teaches practical ways to forecast product features and portfolios.

The format is 2 x 4 hour online sessions using Zoom for voice and screen sharing, and Miro as an interactive online workspace for group activities. 

Attendees also get a 1-hour 1:1 with Troy Magennis after the training. 

This workshop is also marked for "Register once, Do it MANY times" - you get a 100% discount code for any future running of this workshop (space permitting). This allows you to split the days to suit your schedule or to attends again after you have some practice in order to apply more knowledge in your context.

We will cover -

  • An introduction to probabilistic Throughput Forecasting using estimates and historical data.
  • How to quickly estimate the size of features in story counts using Reference Class Forecasting.
  • The different types of scope growth and how to assess your exposure to each growth type.
  • How to forecast multiple features at a time and facilitate prioritization conversations.
  • How to estimate the delivery pace of teams and how to adjust due to team formation.
  • How to incorporate delays and risks into a feature or portfolio forecast.
  • How to understand, measure, and manage internal and external team dependencies.
  • How to prioritize work and facilitate discussions about splitting and cost of delay. 

By the end of this workshop, you will know how to start forecasting and explain to others what factors matter most and how to manage those.

Detailed agenda -

Day 1 (4 hours with a 15-minute break)

  • Group introduction exercise
  • Throughput Forecasting 101 - slides and exercise
  • Feature Size "Reference Class Estimation" exercise 
  • Scope Growth Types exercise
  • Scope Growth Patterns exercise
  • How to use the Scope Growth Estimation canvas
  • Using the Multiple Feature Forecasting spreadsheet
  • How to use the Delivery Pace canvas and exercise
  • Company (or system) wide pace adjustment
  • Risk management - slides + exercise
  • Day 1 take-aways

Day 2 (4 hours with a 15-minute break)

  • Introduction
  • Type of dependencies - theory + exercise
  • Managing dependencies - theory + exercise
  • Measuring dependency impacts - demo + discussion
  • Prioritization 101 - basic cost of delay thinking
  • Prioritizing features exercises using the "three zone" technique
  • Using the Cost of Delay spreadsheet
  • Day 2 take-aways
  • Q and A.

 

You will learn to use our probabilistic forecasting and cost of delay spreadsheets (all free).

 

Workshop exercises are online - you will be working in small groups after some introduction and debrief to the wider group.

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