Using the Monte Carlo Throughput Forecasting Spreadsheets

Learn how to use the throughput and velocity forecasting spreadsheets offered by Focused Objective (download them for free at the links below). Many people use these spreadsheets when forecasting software project delivery dates and team capacity. Join and hear the way these spreadsheets support conversation and difficult choices made earlier.

This power session is presented as a 2-hour online webinar. It requires that you are able to connect to the webinar online to see the screen sharing and slides, and hear the audio via computer or calling in by phone (local and international dial-in numbers provided; we host using the Zoom Communications webinar solution).

Agenda

1. Downloading and Getting Running
2. Monte Carlo Forecasting 101
3. Introduction to the Throughput Forecaster spreadsheet
4. Introduction to the Multiple Feature Cut-Line Forecaster Spreadsheet
5. Using Historical Data (how much and dealing with outliers) 
6. Accounting for work splitting and scope growth
7. Accounting for Risks
8. Accounting for System Factors (monthly pace adjustments)
9. Excel and Google Sheet Version compatibility
10. Q & A

Learning objectives

• How to get the spreadsheets
• Throughput and Velocity Forecaster
• Multiple Feature Cut-Line Forecaster
• What every input means on both spreadsheets
• The typical forecasting flow and facilitation using these spreadsheets
• Knowing what and how much data is acceptable for good forecasting
• Stories of misuse and how to avoid them
• What settings you can change and what you shouldn't
• Known limitations on different Excel and Google Sheets versions 

About the Throughput Forecaster Spreadsheet

 This spreadsheet forecasts a single feature/epic/project using Monte Carlo simulation. The spreadsheet will compute the duration and date solution at different likelihood percentages letting you give more certain answers where it matters most. The rate of delivery can be a simple range estimate of throughput or velocity or a set of historical samples of team throughput or velocity. No matter what process your team uses, this spreadsheet will make answering the questions of How Long? and By When? with a higher degree of certainty.

You can download it here for free: https://github.com/FocusedObjective/FocusedObjective.Resources/raw/master/Spreadsheets/Throughput%20Forecaster.xlsx

About the Multiple Feature Cut-Line Forecaster Spreadsheet

  This spreadsheet forecasts multiple features/epics/projects using Monte Carlo simulation. The spreadsheet will compute what features/epics/projects will likely deliver on or before a target date at the given likelihood percentage you choose. The rate of delivery can be a simple range estimate of throughput or velocity or a set of historical samples of team throughput or velocity. No matter what process your team uses, this spreadsheet will make answering the questions of How Much? and Will Feature X Make It? with a higher degree of certainty.

You can download it here for free:  https://github.com/FocusedObjective/FocusedObjective.Resources/raw/master/Spreadsheets/Multiple%20Feature%20Cut%20Line%20Forecaster.xlsx