Forecasting with Confidence: Engineering + Product Teams Hands-On Training

Engineering & Product Teams
Forecasting together with confidence.
Deliver more within your timebox.

A hands-on, in-house workshop where Engineering and Product learn to forecast TOGETHER using real data, to expose risk earlier, and slice features to hit a fixed date.

Who is it for?

Teams who want evidence-based delivery plans
Product organizations with fixed dates and evolving scope
Leaders who need to see risk—and respond—before it’s too late

Want agenda & pricing?

Under $10,000 for the 2 day on-site course

Or, schedule a short Zoom call to discuss options

Why teams miss dates (and how to fix it)

Most plans rely on estimates, optimistic scope, and hidden risk. We flip that

- Probabilistic, not deterministic: Model delivery from your actual throughput or velocity.
- Target-date-first: Fix the date; slice to value within the timebox.
- Risk is work: If X likely happens, we plan Y now—or run an experiment to find out.

What you’ll learn

Experiential workshop; Learn through doing

- Confidence calibration and how to speak in ranges
- Forecasting from throughput (no endless estimation)
- Feature fracturing into releasable increments
- Risk → experiment mapping with tripwires and economics
- Conditional Monte Carlo (P50/P75/P90 “what-ifs”)
- Operating rhythm to keep forecasts honest weekly

Key exercises

- Target-Date Option Studio: Design multiple paths to the same date.
- Feature Fracturing Lab: Split a large feature into small value slices.
- Dependency String-Map: Visualize what must sequence vs what can parallelize.
- Risk Tripwire Design: Turn uncertainties into measurable experiments.
- Hand-rolled Monte Carlo: Feel how variability shapes outcomes—then scale it with tools.

What you’ll leave with

- By-date release option (P50/P75/P90)
- Fractured increment map aligned to the timebox
- Risk-to-experiment backlog (with tripwires and ROI)
- Weekly forecasting cadence (15–30 minutes, repeatable)

Formats & logistics

2-day on-site (preferred) or 1-day intensive

- Ideal audience: PMs, Tech Leads/EMs, Designers, QA, Analytics
- We use your historical throughput/velocity data (we’ll share a simple export guide)
- Group size: 12–30 (ask about larger groups)

FAQ

Do we need perfect data?

No. We can start with the throughput or completed item counts from last quarter. The workshop teaches how to improve the signal over time.
Do you cover estimation techniques?

Yes, we cover rapid affinity estimation and how to estimate story point/count ranges using statistical methods. We emphasize throughput-based planning and sampling over detailed estimation. When estimates are helpful, we highlight where they provide valuable information.
Will we get a forecast for our real roadmap?

Yes. We practice with a real initiative and you’ll leave with a by-date option and a risk-informed forecast.
What tools do we need?

Nothing special. We bring simple templates and spreadsheets; your teams bring recent delivery data.

Instructor(s)

Troy Magennis

Instructor

[email protected]

Troy Magennis is an IT professional and executive, having helped deliver valuable software to customers at scale since 1994. In 2011 he founded Focused Objective, the leader and trusted brand for Agile metrics and probabilistic forecasting. He regularly keynotes at conferences, eager to share his passion for using data in better ways to improve business outcomes. Previous clients include Walmart, Microsoft, Skype, Sabre Airline Solutions, Siemens Healthcare. Troy currently consults and trains organizations wanting to improve decision-making for IT through Agile and Lean thinking and tools, applying Scrum and Lean techniques appropriately, and where they are going to make this most significant benefit through quantitative rigor.